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By Shobhana Chandra
Nov. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The productivity of U.S. workers probably jumped in the third quarter as companies squeezed more from remaining staff to boost profits, economists said before a government report today.
The measure of employee output per hour rose at a 6.5 percent annual rate after climbing at a 6.6 percent pace the previous three months, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Labor costs may have fallen for the third consecutive quarter.
Companies from Johnson & Johnson to Emerson Electric Co. are slashing payrolls to curb expenses until sales show sustained gains following the worst recession since the 1930s. Rising efficiency helps limit inflation, one reason Federal Reserve policy makers yesterday reiterated a pledge to keep interest rates “exceptionally low” in coming months.
“Companies are holding down costs because they don’t know, as we turn the corner, whether this recovery is going to be maintained,” said Lindsey Piegza, an economist at FTN Financial in New York. “Production is starting to ramp up but we’re not seeing a surge in employment. Prices are likely to remain low.”
The Labor Department’s data are due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Estimates in the Bloomberg survey of 70 economists ranged from increases of 3.8 percent to 8.5 percent. The back- to-back gain in productivity would be the biggest since 2003.
Lower Costs
Labor expenses fell at a 4.2 percent annual rate after dropping at a 5.9 percent pace the prior quarter, according to the survey median.
Also at 8:30 a.m., another report from the Labor Department may show initial claims for jobless benefits fell by 8,000 last week to 522,000, according to the survey median.
The economy grew last quarter for the first time in more than a year, even as employers cut 768,000 workers from payrolls, indicating those Americans that still had jobs were more efficient. The third quarter’s 3.5 percent rate of expansion was the strongest in two years.
Stephen Stanley is among economists projecting companies will soon need to hire more workers in order to keep the recovery going.
“Having cut payrolls to the bone during the last downturn, firms will not in our view be able to rely solely on productivity increases for long,” Stanley, chief economist at RBS Securities Inc. in Stamford, Connecticut, said in a note to clients. “Thus, we look for companies to begin expanding payrolls in early 2010, which is sooner than many market participants expect.”
Job Losses
The economy has lost 7.2 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, and unemployment reached a 26-year high of 9.8 percent in September.
A Labor Department report tomorrow may show payrolls fell by 175,000 in October, while the jobless rate climbed to 9.9 percent, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.
In addition to signaling that interest rates will stay near zero, the Fed yesterday reiterated that growth will probably “remain weak for a time.” Policy makers also acknowledged the economy had picked up as housing rebounded and consumer spending grew.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has rallied 55 percent since plunging to a 12-year low on March 9 as investors became more optimistic the economy was gaining speed. For the July to September quarter, profits exceeded the consensus estimate of analysts for 81 percent of S&P 500 companies that have reported so far, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Earnings Improve
Much of the improvement in earnings has come from reducing costs. Johnson & Johnson, the world’s largest health-products company, said this week it plans to fire more than 7,000 workers as consumers reduce spending on items ranging from drugs to skin care. While the majority of cuts will occur outside the U.S., the New Brunswick, New Jersey-based company said within the country they’ll be across all businesses.
“People just aren’t spending as much as they used to,” Chief Executive Officer Bill Weldon said in a telephone interview on Nov. 3.
On the same day, Emerson, the maker of industrial equipment and garbage disposals, reported profit that beat analysts’ estimates for the fourth quarter ended Sept. 30. Cost reductions, including a smaller workforce, helped St. Louis- based Emerson even as its sales declined.
Chief Executive Officer David Farr, who slashed inventories and cut more than 20,000 jobs in the past year, said in a statement that “the shape and speed of the recovery remains unknown and we expect weakness to continue in the near- term.”
Bloomberg Survey
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Prod- Labor Initial Cont.
uctivity Costs Claims Claims
QOQ% QOQ% ,000’s ,000’s
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Date of Release 11/05 11/05 11/05 11/05
Observation Period 2Q 2Q P 31-Oct 24-Oct
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Median 6.5% -4.2% 522 5750
Average 6.5% -4.2% 522 5766
High Forecast 8.5% -1.9% 535 5860
Low Forecast 3.8% -6.3% 510 5730
Number of Participants 70 63 42 17
Previous 6.6% -5.9% 530 5797
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4CAST Ltd. 7.0% -5.5% 525 ---
Action Economics 7.0% -4.5% 520 5800
AIG Investments 7.0% --- --- ---
Aletti Gestielle SGR 5.8% --- 520 ---
Ameriprise Financial Inc 3.8% -2.4% 520 5750
Banesto 6.0% --- 530 ---
Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi 7.2% -6.3% 528 ---
Bantleon Bank AG 6.8% -4.2% --- ---
Barclays Capital 8.5% -4.5% 520 ---
BBVA 6.5% -2.5% 520 5750
BMO Capital Markets 6.0% -4.0% 515 ---
BNP Paribas 6.5% -5.0% --- ---
BofA Merrill Lynch Resear 4.6% -1.9% --- ---
Briefing.com 6.4% --- 525 5730
Calyon 7.1% -4.6% --- ---
Capital Economics 6.5% -3.2% --- ---
CIBC World Markets 7.5% --- --- ---
Citi 7.3% -4.8% 520 5750
ClearView Economics 7.0% -5.0% --- ---
Commerzbank AG 6.0% -4.0% 520 ---
Credit Suisse 7.5% -5.4% 520 ---
Daiwa Securities America 6.0% -3.5% --- ---
Danske Bank --- -5.1% --- ---
DekaBank 6.6% -5.6% --- ---
Desjardins Group 7.0% -4.2% 528 ---
Deutsche Bank Securities 6.5% -6.0% --- ---
DZ Bank 6.2% -3.4% --- ---
Exane 7.0% -3.6% --- ---
First Trust Advisors 7.4% -5.9% 523 ---
Fortis 6.0% --- --- ---
FTN Financial 6.5% -4.5% --- ---
Goldman, Sachs & Co. 7.0% -4.0% --- ---
Helaba 6.8% -4.5% 525 ---
Herrmann Forecasting 7.0% -5.0% 526 5860
High Frequency Economics 7.0% -5.0% 520 ---
HSBC Markets 7.0% -3.9% 525 5750
Ibersecurities 6.0% -3.3% --- ---
IDEAglobal 5.8% -3.5% 515 ---
IHS Global Insight 7.0% -4.5% --- ---
Informa Global Markets 6.8% -5.0% 524 5750
ING Financial Markets 6.0% -3.4% --- ---
Insight Economics 6.5% -5.0% 525 5750
Intesa-SanPaulo 6.0% -3.5% --- ---
J.P. Morgan Chase 7.5% -4.7% 520 ---
Janney Montgomery Scott L 5.8% -4.0% --- ---
Landesbank Berlin --- --- 520 ---
Landesbank BW 6.5% -3.7% --- ---
Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc --- --- 525 ---
MFC Global Investment Man 6.5% -4.0% 515 5750
Mizuho Securities 5.5% --- 535 ---
Moody’s Economy.com 7.5% -4.6% 525 5740
Morgan Stanley & Co. 6.6% -4.5% --- ---
Natixis 6.0% -3.5% --- ---
Newedge 6.2% --- --- ---
Nomura Securities Intl. 4.8% -4.5% --- ---
Nord/LB 5.5% -3.0% 530 ---
PNC Bank 6.3% -3.8% --- ---
RBC Capital Markets --- --- 523 ---
RBS Securities Inc. 7.0% -3.0% 525 ---
Ried, Thunberg & Co. 7.2% -5.9% 525 5750
Schneider Foreign Exchang 7.9% -4.7% 520 5790
Scotia Capital --- --- 525 5750
Societe Generale 6.5% -3.5% --- ---
Standard Chartered 5.5% -2.6% --- ---
Stone & McCarthy Research 6.3% -3.2% 515 ---
TD Securities --- --- 510 5825
Thomson Reuters/IFR 4.8% -4.4% 525 5775
Tullett Prebon 5.5% -4.0% 515 ---
UBS 7.5% -5.5% 520 ---
UniCredit Research 6.2% -4.0% 520 ---
University of Maryland 6.2% -3.9% 520 ---
Wells Fargo & Co. 7.0% -5.5% --- ---
WestLB AG 5.8% -3.2% --- ---
Westpac Banking Co. 5.4% -2.9% --- ---
Woodley Park Research 6.7% -3.4% --- ---
Wrightson Associates 7.2% -5.9% 525 5750
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To contact the reporter on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington at schandra1@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: November 5, 2009 00:00 EST
